Monday, December 14, 2009

Hot Stove Thoughts

Lackey to the Red Sox: On paper, this looks to be a great deal for the Red Sox. They get a number 1 starter that will likely slot into the third spot of their rotation. Apparently, they have lost faith in Matsuzaka. He now becomes the fourth, or maybe fifth starter, behind Bucholz. Two things would worry me as a Sox fan. The first is the Angels unwillingness to go to five years. Lackey has missed the start of the last two seasons with injuries, so it makes you wonder what the Angels know. They clearly know him best, so you have to wonder a bit. The second thing that would worry me a little is his desire to sign with a team where he will clearly be looked at as a number three. Maybe he is the ultimate team player, but most top flight pitchers have the attitude that they are number one and that is what makes them perform at their best.

Halladay to the Phillies/Cliff Lee to the Mariners: You have to think this keeps the Phillies at the top of the National League as of now. Word is they will lock him up for an additional three years as a condition of the trade. Hard to argue with adding Halladay, although you have to figure he starts diminishing at one point. My only problem is that unless Hamels bounces back, they are back in the same spot as last year and one dominant pitcher has not proven to be enough in the playoffs. The Mariners will team Lee with King Felix at the top of the rotation to create a pretty potent 1-2 punch. If they can get into the playoffs, they will be a tough out with those two leading the way. If they can agree to extension with Lee, it will also provide them with some insurance if Hernandez proves to be too expensive.

Matsui to the Angels: You would have to think this marks the end of the Vladimir Guerrero era in Anaheim. Matsui can provide plenty of pop from the DH spot and has proven to be a clutch hitter in the postseason. The Angels have clearly lost more than than they have gained to this point of the offseason, but you have to give GM Tony Reagins the benefit of the doubt based on recent success. At 1 year and 6.5 million, Matsui could prove to be the steal of the season much like Bobby Abreu did last year.

It should be noted that while all of these deals appear very likely, none have been officially announced.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

LVSC Week 13 NFL Rankings

Every week Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the world's largest oddsmaking company, releases their top polls/rankings for the major sports. They describe their polls as ones in which "teams are ranked purely by the numbers, without media, regional, league, conference or any other biases – just the facts as determined by LVSC’s team of experts." Because they use the same information that is used to make the betting lines, it is perhaps the most complete and accurate poll. We will post the updated college football poll here every Tuesday and the updated NFL rankings on Wednesdays.



Two moves of note this week. First, the San Diego Chargers continue their climb up the ladder as they jump ahead of the Steelers into the fifth spot. I have been saying for the last few weeks that the Chargers are really hitting their stride, and that continued with a dominating victory over the Chiefs. Sure the Chiefs are not a great, or even good, team but those can be the toughest games. As I said with a Saints big win over Tampa two weeks ago, the truly great teams win the games they are supposed to win and do not look past opponents. The Chargers are not going to go quietly. The other move that caught my attention is the Patriots drop from second to fourth. Clearly, Vegas has taken notice that the Pats defense can not slow down the top offenses. I'm not sure I would even have them ahead of the Chargers at this point. In the NFC, the Saints and Vikings will battle it out for a Super Bowl trip. In the AFC, I'll take the Colts and the Chargers.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

LVSC Week 14 College Football Rankings

Every week Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the world's largest oddsmaking company, releases their top polls/rankings for the major sports. They describe their polls as ones in which "teams are ranked purely by the numbers, without media, regional, league, conference or any other biases – just the facts as determined by LVSC’s team of experts." Because they use the same information that is used to make the betting lines, it is perhaps the most complete and accurate poll. We will post the updated college football poll here every Tuesday and the updated NFL rankings on Wednesdays.



The most interesting move this week is TCU jumping into the third spot ahead of Alabama. Vegas is confirming what most experts have been saying all along, that TCU can hang with the big boys. While still seen as 3.5 points below Texas, the Horned Frogs are clearly making their presence felt. Not sure I would want to draw them as my BCS bowl opponent. A team to keep an eye on this week is Nebraska. Checking in at nineteen, they have the capability to give Texas a tough game in the Big 12 Championship. Texas better be sure they are not looking ahead to a BCS Championship game, or they may get knocked out of it. Texas is clearly the better team, but Bo Pelini's Huskers have the ability to give them a tough game. One other team to note is USC. They move back up into BCS contention at number thirteen, which makes them eligible for an at large berth. Can you imagine the outcry from all of the Trojan haters if they were to slide into a BCS game? It is definitely a very outside chance, but just something to think about.